Let's not get carried away, let's win on Saturday first.en passant wrote: ↑Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:34 pmIt would be nice to think that all that ill luck, in never doing well in the cup for so long, could be paid back all in this one season, with us getting through on Saturday, and getting the bye in the first round proper. That special position plus a good draw in the second round might also be enough to raise our profile enough to get us on TV, so that all those failed pay days of previous years would come back to us in spades in one highly lucrative season. I suppose that my brain is getting addled by some cup success into believing that anything is possible, but it is rather nice to dream that this just might come true.
FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
Yes let's not get ahead of ourselves
On the other hand, either ourselves or Tamworth will be ball 56 on Monday
On the other hand, either ourselves or Tamworth will be ball 56 on Monday
Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
Guess we want to be drawn away to 43: http://www.thefa.com/news/2019/oct/16/f ... ils-161019 - failing that, we want to be the ball that's left at the end - lucky winners this time!
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- Posts: 14080
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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
I can't imagine how excited I will be if we are involved in the draw on Monday. If that happens I just hope we aren't one of the first clubs out of the hat. The draw I believe will no longer be regionalised?mikkyx wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:53 pmGuess we want to be drawn away to 43: http://www.thefa.com/news/2019/oct/16/f ... ils-161019 - failing that, we want to be the ball that's left at the end - lucky winners this time!
Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
I’d take the bye, too.
Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
For those interested in maths and statistics, the chances of getting a bye to the second round are 1.2658% assuming you’re in the draw of courseBeano wrote:I’d take the bye, too.
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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
Same chance as everyone else, but I’m more focused on getting through first
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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
Nope. Same chance as everyone else before the first ball is drawn, 1 in 79, but chance (or perhaps probability is a better word) becomes 1 in 78, 1 in 77 and so on as each ball is drawn out (bearing in mind it's 30+ years since my O level maths I accept my memory of probability may not be quite up to scratch, but I'm sure it's something like that). But yes, we need to get past Tamworth first.
Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford
Not really, this is the chance before the draw is started. There are two ways to calculate this:-biccynana wrote:And the chances increase with every ball that's pulled out of the bag.
Simply divide 1/79 and you get the aforementioned figure.
The more interesting way is as follows :-
78/79 - this is the probability of not being first out
77/78 - probability of not being second out
And so on until it’s 1/2
You multiply out all the individual probabilities down the line and you get the same figure.
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