EU Referendum

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Darlo_Pete
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Darlo_Pete » Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:24 pm

Earl_Lee_Dawes wrote:Anyone who votes to leave is a FOOL.

That's all.
So half the country are fools? Looks like a long night tomorrow night.

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mikkyx
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by mikkyx » Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:15 pm

Darlo_Pete wrote:
Earl_Lee_Dawes wrote:Anyone who votes to leave is a FOOL.

That's all.
So half the country are fools? Looks like a long night tomorrow night.
Given how evenly the polls are all split, half the country will be "fools" no matter what happens today.
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lo36789
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by lo36789 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 7:12 am

Indeed - I think whatever happens people need to see the virtues of the other argument and make it work as best we can. no point making excuses over why it went one way or another.

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Magical Quakers
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Magical Quakers » Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:11 am

Do the bookies know something everyone else doesn't?

Majority of them now have Remain at 1/6 (with some at 1/7). Leave is 4/1 (with some at 9/2).

Personally I hope that there is a significant distance between the two side (at least 10%) so that it feels conclusive. If it is 51/49 then there will be pressure to rerun the vote in a couple of years.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by lo36789 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:49 am

Have yet to come across anyone eligible who isn't voting - should be a really good representation and turnout...

I am sure I read before some polling stations have called out more people have voted before 9am today than through the entire day at the general election.

Have no idea what is making bookies so confident one way or the other. I get an absolute split of those I've asked.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Henley » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:21 am

5-1 now for leave - seriously considering arbitraging my remain bet.

The betting's swinging towards Remain because of the release of an Evening Standard/Ipsos Mori poll which had a 10% swing to remain (was +5 Leave now +5 Remain).

One more poll to come from You Gov later.

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Magical Quakers
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Magical Quakers » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:47 am

You can get 6/1 now at PaddyPower......

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Henley » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:59 am

Magical Quakers wrote:You can get 6/1 now at PaddyPower......
I've already covered at 5/1 (Sky Bet).

I did feel uneasy betting on Remain - I feel less dirty now.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Mr_Tibbs » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:25 am

Bankers and hedge fund managers have commissioned private exit polls and the pound is doing very well on the back of what they're seeing, so the bookies will be following that.
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Darlo_Pete
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Darlo_Pete » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:52 am

lo36789 wrote:Have yet to come across anyone eligible who isn't voting - should be a really good representation and turnout...

I am sure I read before some polling stations have called out more people have voted before 9am today than through the entire day at the general election.

Have no idea what is making bookies so confident one way or the other. I get an absolute split of those I've asked.
2 teenagers at work are eligible to vote, but aren't going to do so, as they don't know enough about the subject!! I think it'll be very close and the odds being offered are ridiculous.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Henley » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:56 am

Darlo_Pete wrote:
2 teenagers at work are eligible to vote, but aren't going to do so, as they don't know enough about the subject!! I think it'll be very close and the odds being offered are ridiculous.
They're doing the right thing. I wish it was limited to people who had done proper research.

I spoke to a colleague this morning who is voting remain because "it makes them feel part of a bigger world". After I shared various reasons why I am voting leave, they said "Oh, they're good reasons, I hadn't thought of that. You're the first person to have given good reasons." :roll: :( :cry:

The ignorant are the ones that will keep us in, not take us out as the Remain camp like to smear.

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Hawkeye
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Hawkeye » Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:04 pm

Magical Quakers wrote:Do the bookies know something everyone else doesn't?

Majority of them now have Remain at 1/6 (with some at 1/7). Leave is 4/1 (with some at 9/2).

Personally I hope that there is a significant distance between the two side (at least 10%) so that it feels conclusive. If it is 51/49 then there will be pressure to rerun the vote in a couple of years.
I think that last part probably only applies in the event of a Remain vote. If Remain wins by a narrow margin, the campaign for a second referendum will effectively start tomorrow, and may be sped up by a change in Tory party leadership (which might happen with a marginal victory). A narrow Leave win would be final I'm sure - again, the inevitable leadership change to a pro-Brexit PM would make a 2nd referendum less likely, and it's not exactly something you can easily go back on regardless of leadership.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Henley » Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:22 pm

I can see the political landscape changing after this similar to that which happened in Scotland after 2014. I hope it does, anyway.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Magical Quakers » Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:37 pm

It is definitely going to be an interesting few months in the Tory party whichever way it goes.

Leave is probably the easiest as it means DC departs and BJ arrives.

Remain means DC will stay on 'for a bit', but BJ may struggle to get in as leader given his anti-EU stance. Guess that means GO gets to be PM by default....

What that does to the electorate probably goes with that and the actual %'s that happen today.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by lo36789 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:04 pm

Hawkeye wrote:A narrow Leave win would be final I'm sure - again, the inevitable leadership change to a pro-Brexit PM would make a 2nd referendum less likely, and it's not exactly something you can easily go back on regardless of leadership.
I don't disagree that this will happen, Nigel Farage will never stop banging his drum and the mainstream parties will always see an EU referendum as a means to entice UKIP voters.

I think a referendum is eligible if there is a material change in position from what you have voted for. I actually completely agree with Nicola Sturgeon that IF Scotland votes majority IN for the EU that is solid grounds to hold another Scottish independence referendum.

By the same token IF there is an EU Army created (because to me that is the point of NATO), or there are material changes in the way the EU operates that would be grounds for the UK to have an EU referendum.

The acceptance of new countries into the EU, based on already pre-defined criteria is not a material difference or change for me.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Henley » Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:07 pm

Remain have won this.

Gutted.

This was the last opportunity to regain our identity. England, as I'd known it, is well and truly dead. Fuck this country.

For the first time, I'm glad I'm closer to the grave than the cradle.

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DarloOnTheUp
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by DarloOnTheUp » Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:17 pm

Henley wrote:Remain have won this.

Gutted.

This was the last opportunity to regain our identity. England, as I'd known it, is well and truly dead. Fuck this country.

For the first time, I'm glad I'm closer to the grave than the cradle.
What are you basing this on?

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Henley » Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:23 pm

DarloOnTheUp wrote:
Henley wrote:Remain have won this.

Gutted.

This was the last opportunity to regain our identity. England, as I'd known it, is well and truly dead. Fuck this country.

For the first time, I'm glad I'm closer to the grave than the cradle.
What are you basing this on?
The last 7 polls (3 today) have clear leads for Remain.

As Mike Smithson of Political Betting said earlier today:
If LEAVE does manage to win it'll be a far far bigger polling disaster than at GE2015

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by OHDFC » Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:59 pm


Darlo_Pete
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Darlo_Pete » Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:14 pm

A young bloke at work today was ranting on about the only way to vote was to remain within the EU. Then he realised he wasn't registered to vote, priceless. :lol:

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by lo36789 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:01 pm

Darlo_Pete wrote:A young bloke at work today was ranting on about the only way to vote was to remain within the EU. Then he realised he wasn't registered to vote, priceless. :lol:
What a fool. You know what Pete maybe he should only comment about things where he is prepared to do take pro-active steps to make a difference.

Are you still making snide comments about comms/progress @ Blackwell Meadows?

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Darlo_Pete » Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:14 pm

lo36789 wrote:
Darlo_Pete wrote:A young bloke at work today was ranting on about the only way to vote was to remain within the EU. Then he realised he wasn't registered to vote, priceless. :lol:
What a fool. You know what Pete maybe he should only comment about things where he is prepared to do take pro-active steps to make a difference.

Are you still making snide comments about comms/progress @ Blackwell Meadows?
I wouldn't say they are snide comments. I am genuinely concerned about the lack of progress and I like nearly everybody else on here, wants what is best for the club and that is a move back to Darlo. People don't like what I say, because I ask awkward questions, which don't seem to be answered or the replies are ambiguous and don't say what is happening.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Hawkeye » Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:25 pm

Darlo_Pete wrote:People don't like what I say, because I ask awkward questions, which don't seem to be answered or the replies are ambiguous and don't say what is happening.
Hawkeye wrote:
Darlo_Pete wrote:I think the more and more desperate claims the remain campaign are putting out on a daily basis, is pushing people to vote to leave.
Genuinely curious about specifically which claims you're referring to, Pete. Not saying you're wrong, but so far what I've heard from the Leave side is generally worse.
Didn't see your reply to this one a few pages back, Pete. Wasn't too fussed about prodding you about this, but your last post made me chuckle when I remembered you didn't reply to this one.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by lo36789 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:36 pm

Darlo_Pete wrote:People don't like what I say, because I ask awkward questions, which don't seem to be answered or the replies are ambiguous and don't say what is happening.
Off topic now. Your questions aren't awkward they just aren't asked to the people who can answer them. You'd be as well mouthing off about the referendum without being registered to vote.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Mr_Tibbs » Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Henley wrote:Remain have won this.

Gutted.

This was the last opportunity to regain our identity. England, as I'd known it, is well and truly dead. Fuck this country.

For the first time, I'm glad I'm closer to the grave than the cradle.
Plan your own Brexit...

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Henley » Thu Jun 23, 2016 4:46 pm

Mr_Tibbs wrote:
Henley wrote:Remain have won this.

Gutted.

This was the last opportunity to regain our identity. England, as I'd known it, is well and truly dead. Fuck this country.

For the first time, I'm glad I'm closer to the grave than the cradle.
Plan your own Brexit...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/maps- ... o-live-in/
It'd likely be the US. Very good value in lots of places.

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by liddle_4_ever » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:42 pm

Darlo_Pete wrote:
Earl_Lee_Dawes wrote:Anyone who votes to leave is a FOOL.

That's all.
So half the country are fools? Looks like a long night tomorrow night.
In my experience, I'd say at least half the country are fools!
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by liddle_4_ever » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:47 pm

lo36789 wrote: Have no idea what is making bookies so confident one way or the other. I get an absolute split of those I've asked.
Bookies aren't making a prediction, they are balancing their books based on bets they have received.
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Re: EU Referendum

Post by lo36789 » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:52 pm

Haha what if the bets were all people covering themselves :o

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Re: EU Referendum

Post by Darlo_Pete » Thu Jun 23, 2016 7:29 pm

I hope that whatever the result, that the losing side accept defeat graciously and we can move on. Who else is planning to stay up tonight and watch the results? I'm up tonight, bit of a bugger that I couldn't get tomorrow off!!

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