FAO DL5, the 81 point pessimist.

[Quakerz]

Since the BSP went to a 46 game season, here are the points totals of the 6th placed teams. The reason I'm highlighting that is because you only have to match what the 6th placed team scored and have a GD of 1 more goal. Or if we want to simplify things, to finish 5th you need to score 1 more point than 6th.

6th place

06/07 Burton 75
07/08 Stevenage 79
08/09 Stevenage 81
09/10 Kettering 66 (44 match season so we'll give them 2 more wins) 72.

There is a wide ranging difference and when two or three teams streak away with it, normally 6th place is miles behind with a relatively low total. In a closer league, the points are spread more, and lower placed teams like 5th and 6th have relatively higher totals.

I think this season will see high totals for the top 4 teams and a fair gap and relatively low totals for 5th and 6th place. I reckon 74/75 points will get you 5th this year.

The average 6th place total (using a generous 72 points for Kettering), is 76.75 points, rounded up to 77 points.

An average total needed for 5th would therefore be 78 points.

[DL5]

You're as sad as me for working that out.

Of course you're right in working out that we only need to beat 6th place by a midgie's dick to claim 5th place where I just stuck to the actual points that 5th place achieved.

Time will tell whether it's 81, 78, 74/75 but it's all irrelevant because as stands we're only on course to get 64 points.

Ask yourself this question, can you see us picking up an average of 2 points per game for the rest of the season? we'd need that to scrape in on the 75 point mark. It's unrealistic.

[Quakerz]

75 points = 36 more points from 18 games

12 wins, 6 defeats

11 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats (interestingly since drawing at Mansfield, our record albeit including a lot of cup matches is 10-4-4, so we are IN that sort of form long term!)

10 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats

9 wins, 9 draws, 0 defeats.

We have an easier run in than most teams above us.

[Hawkeye]

You're as sad as me for working that out.

Of course you're right in working out that we only need to beat 6th place by a midgie's dick to claim 5th place where I just stuck to the actual points that 5th place achieved.

Time will tell whether it's 81, 78, 74/75 but it's all irrelevant because as stands we're only on course to get 64 points.

Ask yourself this question, can you see us picking up an average of 2 points per game for the rest of the season? we'd need that to scrape in on the 75 point mark. It's unrealistic.

Stranger things have happened, but unless we win our next five games (Kiddy and Fleetwood in particular are massive games) I have little faith that we'll manage it. Nevertheless, I'm confident that the 2nd half of our season will be better than the 1st and I think we'll do better than 64 points.

[Quakerz]

Yes at some point we could do with a 5/6 game winning streak (not including FA Trophy games), we aren't going to get a sniff of 5th without one. NOW would be a good time, seeing as though Kiddy and Fleetwood are both in our next 5 matches at home.

[DL5]

You're as sad as me for working that out.

Of course you're right in working out that we only need to beat 6th place by a midgie's dick to claim 5th place where I just stuck to the actual points that 5th place achieved.

Time will tell whether it's 81, 78, 74/75 but it's all irrelevant because as stands we're only on course to get 64 points.

Ask yourself this question, can you see us picking up an average of 2 points per game for the rest of the season? we'd need that to scrape in on the 75 point mark. It's unrealistic.

Stranger things have happened, but unless we win our next five games (Kiddy and Forest Green in particular are massive games) I have little faith that we'll manage it. Nevertheless, I'm confident that the 2nd half of our season will be better than the 1st and I think we'll do better than 64 points.

I predict we'll finish on 68-70 points which is a good improvement and a respectable 1st season in this horrible little league

[Quakerz]

I predict we'll finish on 68-70 points which is a good improvement and a respectable 1st season in this horrible little league

I'd have to agree and we'd probably finish around 9th on that performance, however while it is still possible it does not stop me from dreaming it is possible, and shouldn't stop the team from trying to achieve it.

Wrexham just won 7 on the bounce, imagine where we would be if we did?

[DL5]

I predict we'll finish on 68-70 points which is a good improvement and a respectable 1st season in this horrible little league

I'd have to agree and we'd probably finish around 9th on that performance, however while it is still possible it does not stop me from dreaming it is possible, and shouldn't stop the team from trying to achieve it.

Wrexham just won 7 on the bounce, imagine where we would be if we did?

I daren't imagine or dream because I've done that in the past and it just makes things worse when our hopes aren't realised. I was sat there last season still believing we could survive until it was mathematically impossible.

This season I've adopted a realistic as opposed to an optimistic outlook, It's working for me so far.

[wylam_rangers]

75 points = 36 more points from 18 games

12 wins, 6 defeats

11 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats (interestingly since drawing at Mansfield, our record albeit including a lot of cup matches is 10-4-4, so we are IN that sort of form long term!)

10 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats

9 wins, 9 draws, 0 defeats.

We have an easier run in than most teams above us.

Glad you've noticed that Qz. I've been preaching it for a couple of weeks.

[Quakerz]

Preaching what?

[swadquaker]

In any of those years, if we had got a "smidgen" more than the 6th team, then we would displace them and WE would be 6th.It does not make us 5th.Discuss.

[Quakerz]

Nothing to discuss, because if you mean we as in "we" then we would be the 25th team.

We would have always been whichever team finished 5th.

[QUAKERMAN2]

I still think we have an outside chance of making 5th place, along with in my opinion Fleetwood and Grimsby.On paper we have a pretty good run in, not too worried about who we play at home to be honest but of the away games we have played Wimbledon, Luton and Fleetwood with very tough games at Crawley and Grimsby to come, the remaining away games I feel we are capable of getting some sort of a result from.It all depends on the remaining fixtures for Fleetwood and Grimsby, could be some tough 6 pointers in there.I cannot see Mansfield, Kidderminster or Newport being in the mix at the end of the season.I think yesterdays game, even though Eastbourne were very poor, has thrown up some positives, particularly thr partnership of Hatchy and Campbell, the big improvement in Chandler and the return of Paul Arnison at the back and Chris Senior back from injury.My only change would be Quinn for Burns, played very well yesterday but feel Quinns experience and physical presence will be needed with our backlog of fixtures.I still think we can do it.

[swadquaker]

OK, Quakerz, lets say the 7th team did a little better and overtook the 6th team. That makes them 6th not 5th.

[1Superlidds]

but if we do a little better than the team that finishes 6th then we will be 5th!!

[wylam_rangers]

Preaching what?

Your last sentence

We have an easier run in than most teams above us.

[Quakerz]

OK, Quakerz, lets say the 7th team did a little better and overtook the 6th team. That makes them 6th not 5th.

Swad, for the sake of argument we are always the team that finished 5th

Take 06/07 where Burton finished 6th with 75 points. That year Exeter finished 5th on 78 points.

But the thing is we are Exeter and actually only needed 76 points!

76 points was enough to take 5th place in 2006/07! (technically 75 points and GD of +6 would be enough)

[fat tony]

Since the BSP went to a 46 game season, here are the points totals of the 6th placed teams. The reason I'm highlighting that is because you only have to match what the 6th placed team scored and have a GD of 1 more goal. Or if we want to simplify things, to finish 5th you need to score 1 more point than 6th.

6th place

06/07 Burton 75
07/08 Stevenage 79
08/09 Stevenage 81
09/10 Kettering 66 (44 match season so we'll give them 2 more wins) 72.

There is a wide ranging difference and when two or three teams streak away with it, normally 6th place is miles behind with a relatively low total. In a closer league, the points are spread more, and lower placed teams like 5th and 6th have relatively higher totals.

I think this season will see high totals for the top 4 teams and a fair gap and relatively low totals for 5th and 6th place. I reckon 74/75 points will get you 5th this year.

The average 6th place total (using a generous 72 points for Kettering), is 76.75 points, rounded up to 77 points.

An average total needed for 5th would therefore be 78 points.

75 points = 36 more points from 18 games

12 wins, 6 defeats

11 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats (interestingly since drawing at Mansfield, our record albeit including a lot of cup matches is 10-4-4, so we are IN that sort of form long term!)

10 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats

9 wins, 9 draws, 0 defeats.

We have an easier run in than most teams above us.

Averaging 2 points a game from now until the rest of the season is a big ask. Even since the turn of the year, where we've seen more of an improvement, we've only been averaging 1.5 points.

Wimbledon are top with 64 points from 32. So if we're aiming for 2 points per game then we need to be hitting top of the table form.

We'll have a clearer picture when we've caught up these games in hand. The other big thing for me is our away form, 6-1 home wins are great but I'll be far more excited about our chances if we can get off 1 away win all season on Tues night.

[Norm_D_Ploom]

Look at where Fleetwood are now 51 points from 32 games, they are probably going to get around 74 or 75 points.

You would say the top 3 are gone and I would be surprised to see Wrexham blow up so the rest of us are playing for one spot.

Therefore we need to get at least 76 or 77 points I would say, so we have 18 games to get 38 points, a very very tall order.

We will finish in the top 10, we will probably finish in the top 8 but I can't help thinking those daft points we chucked away at Eastbourne, Bath, & Tamworth will probably cost us a play off place not to mention the 4 you could take of Wrexham to bring then back into the pack.

[Quakerz]

Averaging 2 points a game from now until the rest of the season is a big ask. Even since the turn of the year, where we've seen more of an improvement, we've only been averaging 1.5 points.

Our last 18 matches, which obviously includes a few FA Cup and Trophy games is 10-4-4. If they were league games that would be 34 points from 18 games. Sooner or later the cup games are going to run out and we'll be playing mainly league games - point being we ARE in the sort of form that may generate enough points for a play off push.

Since losing 1-0 at Fleetwood on New Years Day when people started calling for Coopers head - we've played 9, won 5, drew 3, lost 1, and scored 20 goals. Yes again it includes a couple of cup games but again it is 2 points a game form.

Wimbledon are top with 64 points from 32. So if we're aiming for 2 points per game then we need to be hitting top of the table form.

That would be the Wimbledon we took 4 points of and conceded 0 goals to?

And like I said, we're currently in short term 2 points per game form, and long term 1.9 points per game form overall - there are 18 league games to go before the end of the season, and a maximum of 3 cup games to go before the end of the league season - what we need to do is MAINTAIN our form until the end of April (this form would by default become more league based). If we continue the form we've shown for our last 18 matches (overall) we WILL end up on 70+ points and in with a shout of top 5.

We'll have a clearer picture when we've caught up these games in hand. The other big thing for me is our away form, 6-1 home wins are great but I'll be far more excited about our chances if we can get off 1 away win all season on Tues night.

We have two away games where we need to take at least 4 points followed by home games to Kidderminster and Fleetwood, which are MUST win.

What if we beat them? For sure, by 1st March we'll know if we're still in there fighting or if the league season is over.

[fat tony]

Our last 18 matches, which obviously includes a few FA Cup and Trophy games is 10-4-4. If they were league games that would be 34 points from 18 games. Sooner or later the cup games are going to run out and we'll be playing mainly league games - point being we ARE in the sort of form that may generate enough points for a play off push.

Since losing 1-0 at Fleetwood on New Years Day when people started calling for Coopers head - we've played 9, won 5, drew 3, lost 1, and scored 20 goals. Yes again it includes a couple of cup games but again it is 2 points a game form.

That would be the Wimbledon we took 4 points of and conceded 0 goals to?

And like I said, we're currently in short term 2 points per game form, and long term 1.9 points per game form overall - there are 18 league games to go before the end of the season, and a maximum of 3 cup games to go before the end of the league season - what we need to do is MAINTAIN our form until the end of April (this form would by default become more league based). If we continue the form we've shown for our last 18 matches (overall) we WILL end up on 70+ points and in with a shout of top 5.

We have two away games where we need to take at least 4 points followed by home games to Kidderminster and Fleetwood, which are MUST win.

What if we beat them? For sure, by 1st March we'll know if we're still in there fighting or if the league season is over.

You're making a good case. I'm not particularly pessimistic but its just our away form massively concerns me. Only 7 of those 18 games you're looking at were away games. Plus, it's not just getting the total points on the board but making sure a good chunk of those are points taken off the teams ahead of us. So far we've only had 2 wins in 14 games against the teams currently above us.

But you can't knock current form and I can see us getting better now the team is looking settled. An away win in either of the next two and I'll be a believer.