FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

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Darlo_Pete
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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by Darlo_Pete » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:11 am

en passant wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:34 pm
It would be nice to think that all that ill luck, in never doing well in the cup for so long, could be paid back all in this one season, with us getting through on Saturday, and getting the bye in the first round proper. That special position plus a good draw in the second round might also be enough to raise our profile enough to get us on TV, so that all those failed pay days of previous years would come back to us in spades in one highly lucrative season. I suppose that my brain is getting addled by some cup success into believing that anything is possible, but it is rather nice to dream that this just might come true.
Let's not get carried away, let's win on Saturday first.

al_quaker
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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by al_quaker » Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:00 pm

Yes let's not get ahead of ourselves

On the other hand, either ourselves or Tamworth will be ball 56 on Monday

:lol:

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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by mikkyx » Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:53 pm

Guess we want to be drawn away to 43: http://www.thefa.com/news/2019/oct/16/f ... ils-161019 - failing that, we want to be the ball that's left at the end - lucky winners this time!
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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by Darlo_Pete » Thu Oct 17, 2019 6:28 pm

mikkyx wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:53 pm
Guess we want to be drawn away to 43: http://www.thefa.com/news/2019/oct/16/f ... ils-161019 - failing that, we want to be the ball that's left at the end - lucky winners this time!
I can't imagine how excited I will be if we are involved in the draw on Monday. If that happens I just hope we aren't one of the first clubs out of the hat. The draw I believe will no longer be regionalised?

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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by Beano » Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:56 pm

I’d take the bye, too.

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Quaker85
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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by Quaker85 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:09 pm

Beano wrote:I’d take the bye, too.
For those interested in maths and statistics, the chances of getting a bye to the second round are 1.2658% assuming you’re in the draw of course Image


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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by biccynana » Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:31 pm

Quaker85 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:09 pm
Beano wrote:I’d take the bye, too.
For those interested in maths and statistics, the chances of getting a bye to the second round are 1.2658% assuming you’re in the draw of course Image
And the chances increase with every ball that's pulled out of the bag.

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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by D_F_C » Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:23 pm

Same chance as everyone else, but I’m more focused on getting through first


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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by biccynana » Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:34 pm

D_F_C wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:23 pm
Same chance as everyone else, but I’m more focused on getting through first
Nope. Same chance as everyone else before the first ball is drawn, 1 in 79, but chance (or perhaps probability is a better word) becomes 1 in 78, 1 in 77 and so on as each ball is drawn out (bearing in mind it's 30+ years since my O level maths I accept my memory of probability may not be quite up to scratch, but I'm sure it's something like that). But yes, we need to get past Tamworth first.

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Re: FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round - Away to Tamworth or Hereford

Post by Quaker85 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:05 pm

biccynana wrote:
Quaker85 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:09 pm
Beano wrote:I’d take the bye, too.
For those interested in maths and statistics, the chances of getting a bye to the second round are 1.2658% assuming you’re in the draw of course Image
And the chances increase with every ball that's pulled out of the bag.
Not really, this is the chance before the draw is started. There are two ways to calculate this:-

Simply divide 1/79 and you get the aforementioned figure.

The more interesting way is as follows :-

78/79 - this is the probability of not being first out

77/78 - probability of not being second out

And so on until it’s 1/2

You multiply out all the individual probabilities down the line and you get the same figure.


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