Relegation Watch
Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:10 pm
While there seems some consensus on the forum that we will be safe, perhaps by there being 3 worse teams rather than our own skill, it got me thinking about doing my best Ginge impression and trying to look more mathematically at points amount which would see us safe.
Table
Teams
Darlington
Result: Telford 3 - 1 Darlington
Games played: 33
Points: 37
Games left to play: (9) Hereford (a), Chester (h), Nuneaton (a), Stockport (a), FC United (h), Boston (a), Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Guiseley (a), Leamington (h).
Form: WDLDL
Total potential points: 64
PPG: 1.12
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 47
Comment: With 5 games to play against the teams around us, in theory, we have to best opportunity to pick up point. Whether that turns out to be the case with this Jekyll and Hyde team. Based on the PPG calculation we would need just 2 more points to confirm safety above Ashton's projected total.
Leamington
Result: Bradford PA 2 - 1 Leamington
Games played: 33
Points: 36
Games left to play: (9) Chester (a), Southport (h), Chorley (a), Ashton (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Alfreton (h), Kidderminster (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a).
Form: DLLLL
Total potential points: 63
PPG: 1.09
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 46
Comment: Paul Holleran likely to help Leamington survive again on what is likely to be one of the smallest budgets in the league. Two games against teams around them (including us) and some teams in mid-table obscurity means I think they'll more than likely be safe with games to spare.
Hereford
Result: No game
Games played: 32
Points: 36
Games left to play: (10) Darlington (h), Brackley (h), Alfreton (a), Guiseley (h), Spennymoor (a), Stockport (h), Southport (a), Telford (h), Altrincham (a), Boston (h).
Form: LWDDD
Total potential points: 66
PPG: 1.13
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 47
Comment: Very tough looking run in for Hereford, with promotion chasers Spenny, Brackley, Stockport, Telford and Altrincham to play. Obviously they can aid their cause by beating us on Saturday, but it's tough to see how many more points they might win after that.
Guiseley
Result: Curzon Ashton 1 - 0 Guiseley
Games played: 33
Points: 33
Games left to play: (9) Spennymoor (a), Curzon Ashton (h), Hereford (a), York (h), Brackley (a), Ashton (h), Blyth (a), Darlington (h), Kidderminster (a).
Form: DDLLL
Total potential points: 60
PPG: 1
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 42
Comment: A team that has struggled to score goals all season, they commonly seem to lose to the odd goal. With 3 games to play against the teams around them, there is the opportunity to pick up points. The questions remains whether they can score the goals to drag themselves away from Ashton.
Ashton United
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 30
Games left to play: (9) Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Blyth Spartans (h), Leamington (a), Spennymoor (h), Guiseley (a), Chester (h), Boston (a), Altrincham (h) [Stockport (a) To be re-arranged].
Form: DLWLL
Total potential points: 57
PPG: 0.91
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 38
Comment: A team that seemingly concede too many goals to remain in this league (71 the most in the league). The loss of top scorer Nick Chadwick (9) to Altrincham for the run in will hardly help their chances. With games again promotion chasing Spenny, Stockport, Altrincham and Bradford PA it's hard to see them making up the points they need.
FC United of Manchester
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 27
Games left to play: (9) Telford (a), York (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a), Kidderminster (h), Alfreton (a), Blyth (h), Brackley (a).
Form: LLDDD
Total potential points: 54
PPG: 0.82
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 34
Comment: FC United have struggled throughout the season 3 draws in their last would hint that they still are competitive but its wins they need if they want to get closer to safety. Only 2 games to play against fellow strugglers (Nuneaton and Darlington) means that if they're going to escape the drop they'll have to do it the hard way.
Nuneaton Borough
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 16
Games left to play: (9) Alfreton (h), Blyth Spartans (a), Darlington (h), FC United (a), Chester (h), Bradford (Park Avenue) (a), Altrincham (h), Leamington (a), Stockport (h).
Form: LLLLL
Total potential points: 43
PPG: 0.48
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 20
Comment: All things point in one direction for Nuneaton unfortunately, perhaps their fans will simply be grateful to have a club to follow at the end of the season. I think it's safe to say they are as good as relegated.
Predicted Bottom 3:
20) Ashton United
21) FC United
22) Nuneaton
Hard to see any change in the bottom 3 at the moment based on the games still to be played. Could be some interesting rework needed if unfortunately Nuneaton can't see out the season. But i think those currently outside of the relegation will survive blessed by the fact there are three worse teams.
Upcoming Fixtures:
Saturday 9th March
AFC Telford United V FC United of Manchester
Ashton United V Bradford (Park Avenue)
Brackley Town V Stockport County
Chester V Leamington
Chorley V Kidderminster Harriers
Curzon Ashton V Blyth Spartans
Hereford V Darlington
Nuneaton Borough V Alfreton Town
Southport V Boston United
Spennymoor Town V Guiseley
York City V Altrincham
Comments:
Tough games for FC United away at Telford and Nuneaton at home to Alfreton, who have put together a run to pull themselves clear.
Similarly tough trips for Guiseley away to Spennymoor and Leamington travelling to Chester who have one of the best home records in the league.
The game for us against Hereford seems the pick of the games down at the bottom of the league. A win could be the start of pulling away and making ourselves safe from the battle at the bottom. Similarly for Hereford with a tough run in they will be keen to get points on the board.
Table
Teams
Darlington
Result: Telford 3 - 1 Darlington
Games played: 33
Points: 37
Games left to play: (9) Hereford (a), Chester (h), Nuneaton (a), Stockport (a), FC United (h), Boston (a), Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Guiseley (a), Leamington (h).
Form: WDLDL
Total potential points: 64
PPG: 1.12
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 47
Comment: With 5 games to play against the teams around us, in theory, we have to best opportunity to pick up point. Whether that turns out to be the case with this Jekyll and Hyde team. Based on the PPG calculation we would need just 2 more points to confirm safety above Ashton's projected total.
Leamington
Result: Bradford PA 2 - 1 Leamington
Games played: 33
Points: 36
Games left to play: (9) Chester (a), Southport (h), Chorley (a), Ashton (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Alfreton (h), Kidderminster (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a).
Form: DLLLL
Total potential points: 63
PPG: 1.09
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 46
Comment: Paul Holleran likely to help Leamington survive again on what is likely to be one of the smallest budgets in the league. Two games against teams around them (including us) and some teams in mid-table obscurity means I think they'll more than likely be safe with games to spare.
Hereford
Result: No game
Games played: 32
Points: 36
Games left to play: (10) Darlington (h), Brackley (h), Alfreton (a), Guiseley (h), Spennymoor (a), Stockport (h), Southport (a), Telford (h), Altrincham (a), Boston (h).
Form: LWDDD
Total potential points: 66
PPG: 1.13
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 47
Comment: Very tough looking run in for Hereford, with promotion chasers Spenny, Brackley, Stockport, Telford and Altrincham to play. Obviously they can aid their cause by beating us on Saturday, but it's tough to see how many more points they might win after that.
Guiseley
Result: Curzon Ashton 1 - 0 Guiseley
Games played: 33
Points: 33
Games left to play: (9) Spennymoor (a), Curzon Ashton (h), Hereford (a), York (h), Brackley (a), Ashton (h), Blyth (a), Darlington (h), Kidderminster (a).
Form: DDLLL
Total potential points: 60
PPG: 1
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 42
Comment: A team that has struggled to score goals all season, they commonly seem to lose to the odd goal. With 3 games to play against the teams around them, there is the opportunity to pick up points. The questions remains whether they can score the goals to drag themselves away from Ashton.
Ashton United
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 30
Games left to play: (9) Bradford (Park Avenue) (h), Blyth Spartans (h), Leamington (a), Spennymoor (h), Guiseley (a), Chester (h), Boston (a), Altrincham (h) [Stockport (a) To be re-arranged].
Form: DLWLL
Total potential points: 57
PPG: 0.91
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 38
Comment: A team that seemingly concede too many goals to remain in this league (71 the most in the league). The loss of top scorer Nick Chadwick (9) to Altrincham for the run in will hardly help their chances. With games again promotion chasing Spenny, Stockport, Altrincham and Bradford PA it's hard to see them making up the points they need.
FC United of Manchester
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 27
Games left to play: (9) Telford (a), York (h), Curzon Ashton (a), Nuneaton (h), Darlington (a), Kidderminster (h), Alfreton (a), Blyth (h), Brackley (a).
Form: LLDDD
Total potential points: 54
PPG: 0.82
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 34
Comment: FC United have struggled throughout the season 3 draws in their last would hint that they still are competitive but its wins they need if they want to get closer to safety. Only 2 games to play against fellow strugglers (Nuneaton and Darlington) means that if they're going to escape the drop they'll have to do it the hard way.
Nuneaton Borough
Result: No game
Games played: 33
Points: 16
Games left to play: (9) Alfreton (h), Blyth Spartans (a), Darlington (h), FC United (a), Chester (h), Bradford (Park Avenue) (a), Altrincham (h), Leamington (a), Stockport (h).
Form: LLLLL
Total potential points: 43
PPG: 0.48
Predicted points (on PPG basis): 20
Comment: All things point in one direction for Nuneaton unfortunately, perhaps their fans will simply be grateful to have a club to follow at the end of the season. I think it's safe to say they are as good as relegated.
Predicted Bottom 3:
20) Ashton United
21) FC United
22) Nuneaton
Hard to see any change in the bottom 3 at the moment based on the games still to be played. Could be some interesting rework needed if unfortunately Nuneaton can't see out the season. But i think those currently outside of the relegation will survive blessed by the fact there are three worse teams.
Upcoming Fixtures:
Saturday 9th March
AFC Telford United V FC United of Manchester
Ashton United V Bradford (Park Avenue)
Brackley Town V Stockport County
Chester V Leamington
Chorley V Kidderminster Harriers
Curzon Ashton V Blyth Spartans
Hereford V Darlington
Nuneaton Borough V Alfreton Town
Southport V Boston United
Spennymoor Town V Guiseley
York City V Altrincham
Comments:
Tough games for FC United away at Telford and Nuneaton at home to Alfreton, who have put together a run to pull themselves clear.
Similarly tough trips for Guiseley away to Spennymoor and Leamington travelling to Chester who have one of the best home records in the league.
The game for us against Hereford seems the pick of the games down at the bottom of the league. A win could be the start of pulling away and making ourselves safe from the battle at the bottom. Similarly for Hereford with a tough run in they will be keen to get points on the board.